How Adversarial Nations Could Use AI to Undermine Developing Countries Progress ?

1.    In a world where AI is shaping everything from corporate decision-making to governmental strategies, a new and potentially sinister scenario is emerging. Advanced AI systems, when paired with vast amounts of data gathered from citizens through social media and digital platforms, are giving developed countries the ability to model the governance of other nations—particularly underdeveloped and developing countries. While this may seem like a neutral or even beneficial development in theory, the reality could be far more insidious, especially when AI is leveraged to serve the strategic interests of more powerful nations.

2.    In this post, we’ll explore the risks associated with state modeling by developed nations using AI. This’ll delve into how an adversarial state could use AI to profile and manipulate another country's governance system for its own gain, and how such manipulation could perpetuate the underdevelopment of nations that are already struggling to find their footing in the global arena.

AI Modeling: A Tool for Manipulation

3.    AI’s ability to process massive amounts of data and discern patterns is a powerful tool. In developed countries, AI is already being used for everything from policy predictions to managing public services. However, when these systems are applied to the governance of other states, the risks grow exponentially.

4.    Consider this scenario: a developed country with access to the social media data, online activities, and demographic profiles of citizens in an underdeveloped or developing country. By using this data, AI could simulate the political, social, and economic dynamics of that nation. The AI model could examine key appointments in the government, track governance focus areas, and understand the issues most pressing to the citizens—whether that’s healthcare, employment, corruption, or security. By analyzing this data, the AI can create a detailed portrait of the country's leadership and social fabric.

Pinpointing Weaknesses

5.    Once this model is established, an adversarial state could use it to pinpoint weaknesses in the governance structure of the developing country. This could include:

• Identifying Vulnerabilities in Leadership: By analyzing the profiles and behavior of key figures in the government, AI could help external actors understand which political leaders are the most influential or susceptible to external pressure. They could exploit these vulnerabilities to create discord or push for specific policies that serve foreign interests.

• Predicting Public Sentiment: AI can be used to predict how citizens in the developing country will respond to certain policies or events. If an external state understands the public's grievances—whether economic, social, or political—it can exploit this knowledge to manipulate or incite unrest, ensuring that the developing country remains politically unstable.

• Economic Levers: By simulating the economic environment of the country, an AI model could help foreign powers anticipate how certain economic policies would affect the local population. External actors could push for policies that benefit their own business interests while destabilizing the local economy, ensuring that the developing nation remains dependent on foreign assistance or investment.

Data as a Weapon of Influence

6.    At the heart of this manipulation lies the data. In today’s digital world, citizens in many underdeveloped or developing countries are sharing vast amounts of personal information through social media apps, mobile platforms, and other digital services. The problem is that much of this data is gathered without a clear understanding of how it will be used. While data-sharing is often presented as a way to connect people or provide personalized services, it also offers a potent tool for those seeking to manipulate political outcomes, public opinion, or governance strategies.

7.    Social media platforms, online shopping habits, and digital footprints leave behind a trail of information that can be used to create highly detailed profiles of individuals and their preferences. When aggregated at a national level, this data can reveal key insights into what policies might resonate with a population, what issues are most important to them, and which leaders are most likely to influence public opinion.

8.    Adversarial states could use this data to drive narratives or create disinformation campaigns aimed at manipulating public perception or political decision-making. By carefully targeting specific demographics with tailored content, they could sway elections, discredit government leaders, or weaken the trust citizens place in their institutions.

Long-Term Strategic Interests

9.    The ability to model a foreign state’s governance and predict public sentiment is not just a tool for immediate influence. It can be part of a broader, long-term strategy to maintain dominance and control over less developed nations.

• Economic Dependency: By keeping a developing nation politically unstable or economically weak, a developed country can ensure that the nation remains dependent on foreign aid, loans, and investment. This dependency can be manipulated to ensure that the underdeveloped country’s resources—whether natural, human, or financial—are funneled toward the interests of the more powerful nation, stunting local growth and progress.

• Geopolitical Leverage: In some cases, an adversarial state may use AI-driven insights to steer a developing country’s foreign policy in a direction that suits its own geopolitical goals. Whether through trade deals, military alliances, or diplomatic pressure, the AI model could help create a long-term strategy for ensuring that the developing nation aligns with the foreign power’s interests, rather than pursuing its own independent path.

• Perpetuating Power Imbalances: If powerful nations use AI to shape the governance of developing countries, it risks reinforcing the very power imbalances that keep these nations from achieving meaningful development. The tools that are supposed to be used for global progress—such as AI—could instead be used to perpetuate economic, social, and political inequalities. This could undermine the autonomy of developing nations, locking them into cycles of dependency and hindering their ability to implement policies that truly benefit their citizens.

The Potential for Stagnation in Developing Nations

10.    The most worrying consequence of this type of AI-driven manipulation is that it could undermine any real hope for progress in developing countries. Instead of fostering policies that focus on education, infrastructure, healthcare, and economic growth, the AI model may push for changes that align with the strategic goals of the developed nation. These might not serve the long-term needs of the local population, and could even perpetuate systemic issues such as corruption, social inequality, and political instability.

11.    Moreover, by controlling key decision-making processes—whether through direct influence or the use of AI-driven disinformation—adversarial states could prevent the developing nation from ever reaching its full potential. While the rest of the world progresses technologically and economically, these manipulated states may find themselves locked in a cycle of stagnation, with no real chance to implement meaningful reforms or achieve self-sufficiency.

Conclusion: A Call for Vigilance and Sovereignty

12.    The risks of state modeling by adversarial developed nations are grave. As AI becomes an increasingly powerful tool for analyzing and shaping governance, developing countries must remain vigilant to the dangers of external manipulation. It is critical that these nations strengthen their digital infrastructures, improve data protection laws, and safeguard their sovereignty against foreign influence.

13.    While it may take time for governments in underdeveloped and developing countries to fully implement effective privacy and governance protections, it is equally important for citizens to be aware of the risks associated with freely sharing their data. In an era where AI can model everything from governance structures to citizen behavior, each individual has a responsibility to understand the implications of their digital presence and take steps to safeguard their privacy and, by extension, their country’s future.

14.    The more developing countries can protect their data, preserve their political autonomy, and foster local technological innovation, the better positioned they will be to resist external pressures and build a self-sustaining future.